It s highly unlikely to be a Papal States coin, which always have BONONIA … on the lion side (usually BONONIA MATER STUDIORUM reflecting their famous university).
The bust is clearly a pope as on the Bologna coin (the imitations refer to Saint Peter who was the first pope), but the imagery on both sides has been expropriated to several other places, as we have seen. In Italy Frinco, Guastalla and other places. In Low Countries Batenburg and Vianen.
I believe it was intended to be circulated as a coin, not a medal or token, because the devices all imitate a known coin type.
I believe at this point the possibilities are:
- an uncataloged Low Countries coin, or a coin that was cataloged but that we just can't find. As mentioned on the other thread, the reverse legend was used by William IV of Bergh but the main reference for this place (van der Chijs) does not have this type. But there were so many small principalities striking coins that some types are still being discovered.
- a contemporary counterfeit.
Concerning a linkage to German States … eventually the Abby of Stavelot (Stablo in German) came under the administration of the Archbishop of Cologne. So it would not be surprisng to see a Stavelot coin show up in a German lot.
Or as you have seen for Mandersheid, the abbeys of Stavelot and of Prum were often administered together.